According to scientists, last month marked the warmest January ever recorded globally, intensifying concerns regarding the accelerating pace of climate change.
Predictions for January 2025 indicate a potential temperature dip compared to January 2024, attributed to a transition away from the El Niño weather phenomenon in the Pacific.
Last month surpassed the January 2024 record by nearly 0.1C, as the European Copernicus climate service reported.
Recent data indicates that the planet’s rising temperatures are primarily attributed to emissions from human activities, particularly the combustion of fossil fuels. However, scientists are currently unable to explain the unusually high temperatures recorded last month comprehensively.
The trend of unexpectedly high-temperature records persists, with figures from mid-2023 showing temperatures approximately 0.2C above previous expectations.
Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, explained to BBC News that the primary factor behind the record-breaking temperatures and the ongoing decades-long warming trend is the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
In January 2025, temperatures were recorded at 1.75 degrees Celsius higher than those observed in January during the late 19th Century, a period prior to the substantial human-induced warming of the climate.
At the beginning of last year, global temperatures increased due to the natural El Niño weather phenomenon, characterized by the spread of unusually warm surface waters across the eastern tropical Pacific. The release of additional heat into the atmosphere contributes to an increase in global temperatures.
The US science group Noaa reported the development of La Niña conditions this year, indicating a potential reversal of effects typically associated with El Niño.
Despite the current weakness of La Niña, which often requires a few months to influence temperatures fully, forecasts indicate that it is likely to result in a more fabulous January.
Adam Scaife, the head of monthly to decadal predictions at the UK Met Office, reflected on the future, stating, “If you’d asked me a few months ago what January 2025 would look like relative to January 2024, my best shot would have been it would be cooler.”
“Recent findings have clarified that it is not the case, yet the reasons behind this remain unclear.”
Several theories have emerged to explain why the past few years have experienced temperatures that exceed previous expectations.
One concept suggests that the oceans may exhibit a prolonged response to the El Niño phenomenon occurring in 2023-24.
Though not particularly intense, the event followed an extended La Niña phase that lasted from 2020 to 2023.
The El Niño event may have effectively “lifted the lid” on warming, facilitating the release of ocean heat that had been building up into the atmosphere.
However, it remains uncertain how this phenomenon continues to influence global temperatures nearly a year after the conclusion of El Niño.
“According to historical data, that effect is expected to have diminished by this point, suggesting that if the current record persists, the likelihood of that explanation decreases,” states Prof Scaife.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, noted that the persistently warm sea temperatures in various regions globally may indicate a shift in ocean behavior.
“The evolution of ocean temperatures is closely observed, as they significantly impact air temperatures.”
A significant theory suggests that the quantity of small particles in the atmosphere, commonly referred to as aerosols, has decreased.
These minute particles have historically obscured certain aspects of long-term warming attributed to greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. They contribute to the formation of bright clouds, which reflect a portion of the Sun’s energy into space.
Recent data indicates a decline in aerosol numbers attributed to decreased fine particle emissions from sectors such as shipping and the Chinese industry. These efforts are part of broader initiatives to improve air quality for the public.
However, this indicates that the cooling effect has not been substantial enough to counterbalance the ongoing warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
James Hansen, the scientist who delivered one of the earliest significant warnings about climate change to the US Senate in 1988, contends that the United Nations has underestimated the cooling effect of aerosols.
The prevailing view among scientists remains one of skepticism regarding this assertion. However, if this information is accurate, it may indicate that the extent of climate change could be more significant than previously believed.
According to Prof Scaife, the “nightmare scenario” involves an additional cloud feedback mechanism. A warming ocean may lead to the dissipation of low-level reflective clouds, subsequently resulting in further warming of the planet.
The validity of this theory remains highly questionable. The upcoming months are expected to clarify whether the recent temperature surge is merely a temporary anomaly or signifies a significant acceleration in global warming that exceeds scientific projections.
At present, the majority of researchers anticipate that 2025 will be marginally more extraordinary than the years 2023 and 2024. However, the recent temperature surge has introduced uncertainty into these predictions.
What is certain, however, is that additional records are expected to emerge as humanity persists in its efforts to warm the planet.
Dr Burgess stated that 2025 is expected to be one of the more remarkable years we will encounter.
“If we do not halt the flow of greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures are set to keep increasing.”
