In a significant development, global temperatures in 2024 have surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time. According to scientists who reported their findings on Friday, this alarming trend raises concerns about the potential violation of government commitments under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
The World Meteorological Organisation has officially confirmed the breach of the 1.5C threshold following an extensive review of data provided by scientists from the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, and the European Union.
“Global heating is an undeniable reality,” stated United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres in a recent announcement. Time remains to avert the most severe impacts of climate change. Immediate action is imperative for leaders.
In a grim evaluation, wildfires fuelled by strong winds have ravaged Los Angeles, resulting in the deaths of 10 individuals and the destruction of nearly 10,000 structures to date. Wildfires are among the numerous disasters increasingly exacerbated by climate change, leading to more frequent and severe occurrences.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Union has reported that climate change is driving global temperatures to unprecedented levels for modern humanity. Researchers have established a connection between climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from fossil fuel combustion.
According to C3S, the planet’s average temperature in 2024 was recorded at 1.6 degrees Celsius above the levels observed during the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has reported that the past decade marks the hottest 10 years recorded.
The impact of climate change is increasingly evident as it exacerbates storms and heavy rainfall. A warmer atmosphere can retain more moisture, resulting in more severe downpours. In 2024, atmospheric water vapour hit unprecedented levels, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reporting that it marked the third-wettest year on record.
In 2024, Bolivia and Venezuela experienced catastrophic fires, while Nepal, Sudan, and Spain faced severe torrential floods. Additionally, heat waves in Mexico and Saudi Arabia resulted in the deaths of thousands.
Climate change impacts individuals across all socioeconomic strata globally; however, the political commitment to tackle this pressing issue has diminished in certain nations.
In a commitment made under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments pledged to take action to limit the average global temperature increase to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect set to assume office on January 20, has labelled climate change a hoax, disregarding the prevailing scientific consensus on the issue. In his initial term, he pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement and has committed to increasing fossil fuel production while reversing President Joe Biden’s efforts to promote alternative energy sources.
Recent elections across Europe have prompted a reevaluation of political priorities, particularly in industrial competitiveness. Some governments within the European Union are now advocating for a relaxation of climate policies, arguing that these regulations adversely impact business interests.
Matthew Jones, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia in Britain, warned that climate-related disasters are expected to become increasingly frequent if efforts to address the underlying causes of climate change continue to lag.
Wopke Hoekstra, the EU climate commissioner, emphasised that the breach of the 1.5C threshold last year underscores the urgent need for prioritising climate action.
“The situation is highly complex, situated within a challenging geopolitical landscape, yet we find ourselves without alternatives,” he told Reuters.
Chukwumerije Okereke, a professor of climate governance at the University of Bristol in Britain, emphasised that the 1.5C milestone should be a wake-up call for crucial political figures to take decisive action.
The Met Office in Britain has confirmed that 2024 is expected to surpass the critical threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, projecting an average temperature of 1.53C for the year.
Buontempo highlighted that 2024 did not exceed the established target, reflecting the longer-term average temperature. However, he cautioned that increasing greenhouse gas emissions will likely lead the world to surpass the Paris Agreement goal soon.
He emphasised that nations still have the opportunity to swiftly reduce emissions to prevent temperatures from escalating to catastrophic levels.
There are still unresolved issues. “We possess the ability to alter the course,” Buontempo stated.
According to C3S, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas, have surged to a new record of 422 parts per million in 2024.
Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist affiliated with the U.S. non-profit Berkeley Earth, has indicated that he anticipates 2025 will rank among the hottest years recorded. However, it is unlikely to claim the top position. He observed that temperatures in early 2024 received an additional increase due to El Niño, a warming weather phenomenon currently shifting towards its cooler La Niña counterpart.
“He stated that it is expected to remain among the top three warmest years on record.”
