As COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev approached the podium during the closing meeting of the Baku climate summit on Sunday morning, he was poised to secure a crucial agreement on global climate finance, armed with two speeches in hand.
One was crafted around a hoped-for deal being struck. At the same time, the other was for the possibility of a summit-collapsing impasse, according to two sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters anonymously.
“Indeed, we had developed multiple versions of the speech to address different situations, but as we took the stage, we felt assured of our success,” remarked a source, an official within the COP29 presidency.
Babayev successfully pushed through a $300 billion finance plan to assist developing nations in addressing the escalating costs associated with global warming over the next ten years, all before critics could voice their objections. This maneuver enabled him to deliver a more optimistic address.
He praised the agreement as a breakthrough and shamed the deal’s doubters as “wrong,” even as many of the climate deal’s intended recipients slammed it as woefully inadequate.
Babayev’s strategic readiness for various scenarios at the contentious summit in Azerbaijan underscored a widely held belief among attendees before its commencement: the Baku climate talks were destined for turbulence.
“Multilateralism as a whole is under threat,” stated Eliot Whittington, chief systems change officer at the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership.
“Indeed, the UNFCCC is probably the bright spot – proving that even in the face of incredibly hostile geopolitics and fundamentally difficult questions, a deal can be made,” he said, referring to the U.N. body sponsoring the annual climate summit.
The sluggish advancement in addressing climate change and the continued increase in global emissions have sparked heightened tensions and demands for reform.
“This is something that needs to be looked at, when just a handful of countries, based on their economic interests, can almost wreck the entire process,” Sierra Leone Environment Minister Jiwoh Abdulai told Reuters.
The negotiations in Baku were significantly impacted by the potential return of climate skeptic Donald Trump to the presidency. As the world’s most prominent economic leader and a significant historical contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, Trump’s stance on environmental issues raises concerns among global leaders, particularly in oil and gas production.
Trump, who takes office in January, has pledged to withdraw the U.S. from the global Paris Agreement on climate change, as he did during his first 2017-2021 term in the White House, and has called climate change a hoax.
During discussions at the Baku conference, negotiators noted that although the U.S. delegation played a significant role in formulating the climate finance agreement, it fell short of assuming a prominent leadership position, as seen in previous climate summits. Furthermore, there were concerns regarding the ability of the next administration to uphold the commitments made.
The voters in the United States have decided, and that is the outcome. What they’re going to do, we do not know,” South African Environment Minister Dion George said.
At the COP29 conference, U.S. officials aimed to reassure international partners that the combination of market dynamics, current federal subsidies, and state mandates would facilitate ongoing renewable energy deployment, regardless of any potential disengagement from the global process by Trump.
Experts indicate that the ongoing war in Ukraine, coupled with escalating tensions in the Middle East, has shifted global focus towards security and energy availability, prompting numerous governments to adopt more stringent financial measures.
Observers of the talks noted that this complicates efforts to secure a more significant climate finance figure.
“Even sustaining climate finance at existing levels amid the current political landscape is a significant struggle,” stated Joe Thwaites, a senior advocate for international climate finance at the Natural Resources Defence Council, an environmental organization.
The proposed agreement to allocate $300 billion each year by 2035 represents a significant increase, potentially tripling the commitments made by wealthy nations to deliver $100 billion by 2020. The earlier goal was fully achieved in 2022 and expires in 2025.
Wealthy nations’ reluctance to increase financial contributions, coupled with the urgency to finalize a potentially inadequate agreement amidst looming political instability, has emerged as a significant point of contention for Least Developed Countries and small island states. Representatives at the Baku conference expressed feeling marginalized in the ongoing negotiations.
During the concluding phase of the summit, negotiating blocs from both factions staged a walkout in protest, resulting in a significant delay of several hours in reaching an agreement.
“We approached this with sincere intentions, prioritizing the safety of our communities and the well-being of the global population,” stated Tina Stege, the climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, during the closing plenary.
“The current COP has revealed a troubling display of political opportunism, as the lives of the world’s most vulnerable individuals are manipulated for gain.”
India’s envoy, Chandni Raina, took the opportunity to firmly dismiss the climate finance deal passed under the authority of Babayev.
“The outcome has left us disappointed, highlighting the reluctance of developed country parties to meet their responsibilities,” she stated at the summit.
Climate advocates have expressed that, although the agreement represents an improvement over a complete stalemate, the divisions revealed during the conference and the diminished trust in the process among developing nations will present challenges for Brazil as it gears up for COP30.
“This presents a significant challenge for Belem, and it will ultimately be up to Brazil to determine how to rebuild trust,” stated Oscar Sorria, director of the Common Initiative, a think tank dedicated to global financial reform.
