Projections from the European Climate Service indicate that 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record, characterized by severe heatwaves and lethal storms.
Global average temperatures are projected to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the year, positioning 2024 as the inaugural calendar year to surpass this significant threshold.
The recent surge in high temperatures can largely be attributed to human-induced climate change, while natural factors like the El Niño weather pattern play a lesser role.
Experts warn that this should serve as a wake-up call in anticipation of the upcoming UN climate conference in Azerbaijan, COP29, scheduled for next week.
Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, emphasizes that the latest record serves as a critical alert to governments at COP29 regarding the pressing necessity for measures to curb additional warming.
Throughout the first ten months of 2024, global temperatures have reached unprecedented levels, indicating that only an unlikely and significant decrease in the remaining two months could avert the establishment of a new record.
Data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service suggests that 2024 is poised to be at least 1.55C warmer than pre-industrial levels.
The term “pre-industrial” designates the period from 1850 to 1900, a time frame that marks the era before substantial human-induced warming of the planet, notably through the extensive use of fossil fuels.
The forecast indicates that 2024 may exceed the existing 1.48C record established just last year.
“This represents a significant milestone in the history of global temperature records,” stated Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus.
According to data from Copernicus, this marks the first instance in which a calendar year has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.
The significance of this action cannot be overstated, as nearly 200 nations committed to restricting long-term temperature increases to that threshold in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to mitigate some of the most severe consequences of climate change.
Breaching the 1.5C limit does not necessarily indicate a failure to meet the Paris Agreement’s objectives. This is because the agreement’s target pertains to average temperatures assessed over approximately 20 years, a timeframe designed to account for natural fluctuations in climate patterns.
However, each annual breach inches the globe closer to surpassing the critical 1.5C threshold in the long run. In a stark warning issued last month, the United Nations indicated that, under existing policies, the global temperature could rise by over 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
The details surrounding 2024 raise significant concerns.
The warmth experienced in early 2024 can be attributed to the influence of the natural El Niño weather pattern. In the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, surface waters are experiencing higher-than-normal temperatures, releasing additional heat into the atmosphere.
The recent El Niño phase commenced in mid-2023 and concluded around April 2024; however, temperatures have remained unusually elevated since then.
In a striking development, global average temperatures have consistently reached unprecedented levels for this time of year over the past week, as reported by Copernicus data.
Numerous scientists anticipate the onset of the more relaxed phase, La Niña. Experts suggest this could result in a temporary decline in global temperatures in the coming year, though the exact implications remain unclear.
“We will closely monitor developments as we approach 2025 and beyond,” states Ed Hawkins, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading.
As greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to surge, experts caution that it is only a matter of time before new records are established.
“According to Prof Hawkins, rising temperatures contribute to more intense storms, hotter heatwaves, and increasingly extreme heavy rainfall, resulting in evident consequences for populations globally.”
“Achieving net zero emissions is essential for stabilizing global temperatures and preventing further escalation of disaster-related costs.”
